Islamic stateless?

Author:
The Economist

THE self-proclaimed caliphate of Islamic State (IS) is weakening fast. In June the jihadists were kicked out of Fallujah by the Iraqi army, then pounded by air strikes as they fled. American-backed rebels in Syria have surrounded the group’s fighters in the northern city of Manbij and are eyeing Raqqa, its de facto capital. In total, IS is now thought to have lost half of the land it seized in Iraq and 20% of its territory in Syria. It is on the verge of losing its main stronghold in Libya, too.

The biggest fights are still to come: for Raqqa and Mosul, in northern Iraq, the two biggest cities under IS control. IS fighters are expected to defend them ferociously. More than just land is at stake. Apart from its savagery, IS has distinguished itself from other jihadist groups—and indeed, surpassed the likes of al-Qaeda—by capturing territory and governing it. As it loses that land, and any chance of building an Islamic Utopia, its appeal to disaffected Muslims may dwindle. So the group is adapting.

In many ways IS is becoming more like a conventional, stateless, terrorist organisation. In an abrupt and remarkable shift, Abu Muhammad al-Adnani, the group’s spokesman, said in May that IS does not fight for territory. It would defend Raqqa and Mosul, of course, but it is also preparing to revert to guerrilla tactics. And Mr Adnani repeated an appeal for followers to hit the group’s enemies abroad. “The smallest action you do in their heartland is better and more enduring to us than what you would [do] if you were with us,” he said.

The article's full-text is available here.

Back to CIRSD recommends

Latest news

Horizons Hosts James Dorsey for a Discussion on Middle East Escalation

The Center for International Relations and Sustainable Development (CIRSD) hosted an award-winning journalist and scholar Dr. James M. Dorsey for a special Horizons Discussion on June 23rd, 2025. In conversation with Horizons Managing Editor Stefan Antić, Dorsey unpacked the lightning-fast escalation between Israel and Iran, the Trump administration’s divided response, and the wider stakes for regional and great-power politics. Read more

Vuk Jeremić at St. Petersburg Economic Forum: “We Are Living in a Time of Grave Geopolitical Instability”

St. Petersburg, June 2025 – Speaking at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum on the high-level panel “Eco-Rethinking of the Global Financial System,” Vuk Jeremić, President of the Center for International Relations and Sustainable Development (CIRSD), delivered a stark warning about the risks posed by escalating global tensions to any serious attempt at international financial system reform. Read more

CIRSD Hosts Ugandan Presidential Advisor Odrek Rwabwogo in Latest Horizons Discussion: A Deep Dive into Africa’s Industrial Future

The Center for International Relations and Sustainable Development (CIRSD) hosted Mr. Odrek Rwabwogo, Uganda’s Presidential Advisor on Exports and Industrial Development, as the featured guest in the latest installment of its flagship Horizons Discussion series — the main dialogue platform of Horizons journal. Read more

CIRSD Vice President Stefan Jovanović Speaks at Regional Conference on China’s Role in the Western Balkans

Belgrade, June 5, 2025 – Stefan Jovanović, Vice President of the Center for International Relations and Sustainable Development (CIRSD), participated in the regional conference “Democracy Meets Strategy: Parliament’s Place in China Policy”, held in Belgrade. The event gathered parliamentarians, policymakers, and experts from across the Western Balkans to examine the region’s evolving cooperation with the People’s Republic of China. Read more