Horizons Hosts James Dorsey for a Discussion on Middle East Escalation

The Center for International Relations and Sustainable Development (CIRSD) hosted an award-winning journalist and scholar Dr. James M. Dorsey for a special Horizons Discussion on June 23rd, 2025. In conversation with Horizons Managing Editor Stefan Antić, Dorsey unpacked the lightning-fast escalation between Israel and Iran, the Trump administration’s divided response, and the wider stakes for regional and great-power politics.

Dorsey opened by framing the October 7th, 2023 Hamas attack as nothing less than “a paradigm shifting event,” the first time Israeli towns were briefly occupied and civilians massacred in their homes. That trauma, he argued, shattered the country’s long-standing reliance on deterrence: “Its defense doctrine today is emasculation,” he said, explaining that Israel now seeks the destruction—not merely the defeat—of adversaries such as Hamas, Hezbollah, and, increasingly, Iran-aligned forces.

After U.S. President Donald Trump abandoned the JCPOA in 2018, Tehran enriched uranium to 60 percent to raise the cost of continued sanctions. The tactic, Dorsey noted, “has boomeranged,” becoming the linchpin in narratives portraying Iran as racing toward a bomb—and thereby justifying Israeli, and now American, strikes.”

When Antić asked what the United States hopes to achieve, Dorsey was blunt: “I don’t know that there’s a policy.… It’s a power struggle within the administration,” he said, recalling how top officials publicly ruled out regime change only for the president to seemingly contradict them hours later. Dorsey likened Trump’s approach to prior negotiations: “Trump’s negotiating strategy is … ‘This is what we’re going to do… and if you don’t do it… then all hell breaks loose.’” Such ultimata, he argued, doomed any realistic chance of reviving a nuclear deal.

Contrary to hopes that a post-Netanyahu Israel might soften its stance, Dorsey cautioned that “There is 82 percent support for the current attacks on Iran,” while virtually no mainstream party questions the Gaza war on humanitarian grounds. Even a new coalition, he suggested, would inherit this hawkish consensus.

Despite boasting a far larger population and battle-hardened ground forces, Tehran faces stark constraints in air, naval, and missile replenishment capacity. “Iran doesn’t have good options,” Dorsey said flatly—yet unconditional surrender would strip the regime of its last shred of legitimacy. Both sides profess willingness to negotiate, but only Washington, not the UN or Gulf mediators, has the leverage to bring Jerusalem to the table.

Dorsey dismissed talk of Beijing or Moscow filling a U.S. vacuum: “Neither China nor Russia is capable, politically or militarily, of replacing the United States in the Gulf.” For all the chatter about a bipolar or tripolar world, the task of keeping the Strait of Hormuz open still falls to Washington—something China actually favors.

Asked to come up with a preliminary assessment of who might be the winners and losers of the latest escalation, Dorsey demurred: “I think time will tell frankly.” Israel may seem victorious on the battlefield, but he warned that the erosion of its international standing “is going to ripple through Israeli society for a significant time to come.” The United States remains a super-power, yet its credibility—already strained by perceived double standards over Gaza—continues to erode.

The full conversation is available now on CIRSD’s YouTube channel.

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