Moscow, December 2024 – Vuk Jeremić, President of the Center for International Relations and Sustainable Development (CIRSD), delivered a speech at the IX Moscow International Conference on Political Risks and Foresight at the MGIMO University titled “International Uncertainty 2025.” Speaking at the opening panel “A Changing Balance of Power in the Emerging Multipolarity,” Jeremić provided a comprehensive analysis of the ongoing geopolitical shifts and the challenges facing the global order.
Jeremić introduced the concept of a geopolitical recession, comparing it to economic recessions but highlighting its longer, more profound cycles that tend to last for decades. He emphasized that this era is marked by declining international cooperation and the inability of multilateral organizations to deliver solutions to pressing global issues.
“The rules of the game in international relations no longer reflect the balance of power among key players,” said Jeremić, calling attention to the dysfunction of existing multilateral frameworks. He outlined three potential responses to this crisis: reforming existing institutions, such as the United Nations, which he argued must begin by addressing India’s underrepresentation in the Security Council; building new institutions, citing the rise of alternative organizations like BRICS; and going to wars, which he described as an unfortunate but increasingly common trend.
“So your can try to fix institutions, build new ones, or go to war. And I think that we’re currently seeing all three being tried by different actors, with different amounts of energy being invested in them,” Jeremić noted.
Looking ahead, Jeremić stressed the importance of dialogue between global powers to resolve conflicts and build a more stable future. “A big hope for emerging from the geopolitical recession and ending conflicts lies in the forthcoming dialogue between Russia and the United States. This dialogue will face significant obstacles and will not be easy, but it remains our best chance and hope for global peace and stability,” Jeremić concluded.
The panel was moderated by Andrey Sushentsov, Dean of the School of International Relations at MGIMO University. Alongside Jeremić, it featured Dmitry Simes, Professor at MGIMO University; Major General S. B. Asthana, Director of the United Service Institution of India; Andrey Denisov, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Russian Federation to China (2013–2022) and Senator of the Russian Federation; Alexander Dugin, Russian philosopher and political scientist; and many other distinguished scholars and academics.
