The world is currently undergoing a massive transition from a unipolar world order, led by the United States and its allies, to a multipolar world order, where rising powers such as Russia and China are tilting the scales of global power dynamics. Many International Relations scholars and policymakers posit that such transitions lead to increased global instability, uncertainty and conflicts, until the scales of power dynamics reach their equilibrium. This is certainly evident in the ongoing Russia-Ukrainian and Israeli-Palestinian conflicts. However, even though changing power dynamics are accompanied by the biblical four horsemen- conquest, war, famine and death; they can also bring with it stability and prosperity to the “lucky few”. Such is the case with Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, the two poorest nations in Central Asia. 

Border Clashes

One characteristic that was specific in the case of the Soviet Union was the demarcation of internal borders between the republics in the state union in such way to create an internal balance of power. However, the dissolution the Soviet Union has generated border clashes and wars between neighboring states. Armed conflicts in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Russia and Ukraine were all the result of this communist-era strategic internal border demarcation. This has also affected the relations between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, as the two countries share 980 kilometers of border. 

After the Soviet Union's collapse, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan emerged as independent states, retaining borders drawn in the 1920s under Stalin. During the Soviet era, Kyrgyz and Tajik communities had shared property rights over natural resources, but today, vague border lines have led to disputes between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan over access to resources like water for irrigation and pasture grounds, causing multiple conflicts and even more incidents over their historically short period of independence. The 2004 “Apricot War” and 2014 “Ketmen War” stand out as testaments to the complexity of the arising border challenges. The clashes alongside 110 kilometers of disputed border were renewed, first in April of 2021, and later in September of 2022, leading to a short armed conflict where artillery, armed drones, tanks, and other armored vehicles were used, killing dozens of civilians and displacing thousands in the process.  

What seemed like a dire situation with the potential to further destabilize the entire region of Central Asia has now become a success story, as representatives of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan reached a 90 percent border agreement at the beginning of 2024. This landmark resolution to the border dispute comes at a time when neither Russia, nor China can afford to have another conflict so close to their borders. Numerous research indicates that the security in Central Asia is still a priority for China, so it is no surprise that the resolution was agreed upon following the annual China-Central Asia Summit, which took place in May of 2023. Even though there were inclinations to believe that Russia’s preoccupation with Ukraine is creating more leeway for China in Central Asia, Russian president Vladimir Putin has chosen Kyrgyzstan as his first foreign visit in October of 2023, despite the ICC arrest warrant. This visit by Putin showcases Russia’s persevering geostrategic interests in Central Asia and its priority of maintaining the regional stability.

Both Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan find themselves in a situation where they are politically and economically dependent on Russia and China. Remittances from the Russian labor market play a significant role in the economies of Central Asian states, comprising a substantial 31% and 50% of the national GDP in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, respectively. The countries have also benefitted immensely from the China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Conflict between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan would only disturb Russia’s and China’s geopolitical and geoeconomic sphere of influence in the Central Asia and would further cripple the national economies of both Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. In other words, it is bad for business. 

Rising Chinese Influence

China’s “grandiose plan” for Central Asia entails extraction and import of more natural gas from Turkmenistan and the construction of a railway through Kyrgyzstan to Uzbekistan to complement the BRI route through Kazakhstan. The China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan (CKU) railway, conceived in the 1990s, aims to enhance intercontinental overland trade, potentially offering a faster route between China and Europe compared to existing routes through Kazakhstan, Russia, and Belarus.  The multibillion-dollar CKU railway comes in times of heightened geopolitical urgency, as the railway to Europe which crosses through Russia is exposed to risk of sanctions due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, prompting China to ensure alternative routes. 

The Kyrgyz leg of the CKU railway faces significant technical challenges and high costs, estimated between $4.5 billion to $8 billion, but would also give a high return-on-investment. Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov estimates the railway could generate $200 million annually, with Kyrgyzstan’s contribution likely met through a Chinese loan. On June 6, officials from Kyrgyzstan, China, and Uzbekistan signed an agreement in Beijing to begin construction, with China holding a 51% stake and Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan 24.5% each. Even though there were concerns that China is exercising a “debt trap diplomacy”, the project will operate under a Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) model, potentially protecting Kyrgyzstan from excessive debt but possibly forfeiting some revenue until construction costs are covered. 

While China focuses on economic issues in Central Asia, Tajikistan’s lack of natural resources and location off the main BRI routes limit its inclusion in grand infrastructure plans. However, Tajikistan is of crucial strategic importance for China, not only due to its location, but also because ethnic Tajiks make up 25% of Afghanistan’s population. Through good relations with Dushanbe, China would ensure regional stability in Afghanistan as well, especially since the US troops have left the country. It may be for this very reason that Chinese investors have made pledges of over $500 million of investment to Tajikistan, which would be intended for an iron-ore processing plant in the northern city of Khujand, the modernization of one of the capital’s main stadiums, and the purchase of Chinese electric cars for local taxi services. Additionally, Tajikistan’s Economic Development Ministry has revealed a $1.5 billion commitment of a Chinese company to building a solar power plant near Tajikistan’s border with Afghanistan. 

If such multibillion megaproject in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan come to realization, this will push the region of Central Asia even more in the Beijing’s sphere of influence. Since international relations are chaotic and do not follow certain logic, it is hard to make a statement that Russia will lose its influence in the region, especially since it has military troops in both countries. However, as the war in Ukraine continues to unfold, it seems that Beijing will have a final word. 

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