While al Qaeda may soon return to preeminence in the global jihad recruitment competition, it is evolving in the face of existential challenges such as the American post-9/11 counter-terrorism regime, competition from the Islamic State, and a rapidly changing Middle East. al Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate, Jabhat al Nusra (or the al Nusra Front as it’s commonly referred to in the United States), officially rebranded itself as Jabhat Fath Al Sham -- “Conquest of the Levant Front” -- in order to appeal to a broader range of recruits and moderate opposition groups in the Syrian civil war. Exposing his face to the camera for the first time, al Nusra’s leader, Abu Muhammad al Julani, declared a soft split from al Qaeda and a moderated agenda to avoid Western scrutiny. His move raises questions about the future role of al Qaeda’s “core” leadership under Dr. Ayman al Zawahiri -- which is increasingly isolated from the Syrian conflict. Given its diminished role, it is increasingly unlikely that al Qaeda’s “core” leadership will retain relevance, leaving two plausible paths for al Qaeda and al-Julani: al-Julani orchestrates a coup, or, as the more involved and charismatic leader, he assumes leadership through a peaceful handoff by Zawahiri.

After half a decade under Zawahiri’s leadership, al Qaeda’s previous growth and success in cultivating prestige has diminished in favor of its individual affiliates. Al Nusra has performed well on the battlefield in Syria, steadily absorbing other jihadist and combatant groups and positioning itself as the most successful antagonist to the Assad regime’s brutality – the primary driver of the conflict. Surprisingly, al-Nusra has held true to the pledge it made to Osama bin Laden’s globally oriented jihadi organization 3 years ago while also declaring its determination to be a central figure in Syria’s post-conflict future. If al Julani chooses to assert the rebranded al Nusrah as the new core leadership, there is little that Zawahiri or his coterie, sheltering from American drone surveillance and strikes, could do to prevent the coup. Much as the 1979 invasion of Afghanistan by the USSR engendered the birth of modern global Islamic terrorism and gave rise to Osama bin Laden’s al Qaeda, the conflict in Syria could shift leadership legitimacy to al-Julani’s al Nusra.

The article's full-text is available here.

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