Sept. 11 and the Future of American History

Author:
Niall Ferguson

The public wants prophets. The historian writes stories about the past, but what the public wants is the history of the future. This leads to a paradox. The prophet since the time of Cassandra has largely gone unheeded. However, only the unheeded prophet has her prophecies fulfilled. If the prophet is heeded, then disaster may be averted — and the prophecy negated.

These reflections are prompted by the 20th anniversary of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. Before the attacks, there were prophets who foresaw such a disaster, not least Richard A. Clarke, the National Security Council’s counterterrorism adviser. But it was precisely his inability to persuade George W. Bush’s administration of the imminence of al-Qaeda’s attack on America that ensured it happened. Similarly, if more people had been persuaded by Harvard professor Samuel Huntington’s warning in 1993 of a new “clash” between Western and Islamic civilizations after the Cold War, perhaps that clash might have been averted and the prediction proved false. Instead, we had believed an earlier prophet: Francis Fukuyama, who in 1989 had proclaimed “the end of history.”

The disaster of 9/11 was deeply shocking: the ruthless fanaticism of the suicidal hijackers, the suddenness of the World Trade Center’s collapse, the helplessness of most of the victims. On top of the trauma came the uncertainty: What would happen next? We needed new prophecies. If you are in the business of prognostication, it is a good practice — indeed, it is one of the first principles of Philip Tetlock’s “superforecasting” — to look back and see how you did. I had mixed success.

The article's full-text is available here.

Back to CIRSD recommends

Latest news

[VIDEO] Ian Bremmer: The World Moves Too Fast for “Geopolitical Centuries” | Horizons Interview

Horizons presents an exclusive interview with Ian Bremmer, President and Founder of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media. The conversation explores the current state of global affairs, including the idea of a “geopolitical recession,” the rise of Asia, shifts in the domestic political landscape in the United States, transatlantic relations, the future of global governance, as well as the growing impact of artificial intelligence on international stability and economic transformation. The interview was conducted by Horizons Editor in Chief Vuk Jeremić and recorded in November 2025. Read more

Horizons Discussion with Jeffrey Sachs on the Asia-Pacific Century

The Center for International Relations and Sustainable Development (CIRSD) hosted a high-level Horizons Discussion featuring Professor Jeffrey D. Sachs, one of the world’s most renowned intellectuals, in conversation with Vuk Jeremić, President of CIRSD and Editor-in-Chief of Horizons. The event marked the launch of the 32nd volume of Horizons, titled The Asia-Pacific Century. Read more

When Development Falters: The Cost of Europe’s Inward Turn

At a time of growing global uncertainty and polarization, it can often be difficult to pinpoint the specific moments that will have the most pronounced impact on the long-term strength of our international system. Read more

GPDI Co-Chair María Fernanda Espinosa Calls for UN Reform Centered on Preventive Diplomacy in Interview with GZERO Media

Paris — On the sidelines of the Paris Peace Forum, María Fernanda Espinosa, Co-Chair of the Global Preventive Diplomacy Initiative (GPDI) and former President of the United Nations General Assembly, spoke with GZERO Media’s Tony Maciulis about the urgent need to make global peace efforts more proactive through preventive diplomacy. Read more