What economies face now may not be solely a coronavirus-triggered meltdown. As devastating as the coming recession—or depression—is likely to be, the health crisis is exacerbating problems in a system that was already under strain.
A view of Times Square hours ahead of the implementation of 'New York State on PAUSE' executive order as the coronavirus continues to spread across the United States on March 22, 2020, in New York City. The World Health Organization declared coronavirus (COVID-19) a global pandemic on March 11th. (Photo by Noam Galai/Getty Images)
Times Square in New York City, a symbol of global growth, is empty—is that for the best?(Photo by Noam Galai/Getty Images)
In the past month, as the world grappled with the coronavirus, images circulated from the Great Influenza Pandemic of 1918: grainy black-and-white photographs of police in masks, hospitals with rows and rows of beds, Red Cross workers bearing stretchers. Then, as now, there was no vaccine. Schools, churches and bars closed, and quarantines were imposed. Then, as now, travel helped spread the virus globally (it was wartime); at least 50 million people died. And then, as now, economies were affected, though it’s difficult to calculate how much, as the Spanish flu began during the Great War, which had its own effects. The World Economic Forum estimates the outbreak reduced GDP per capita by six per cent.
One clear difference, though, is that the Spanish flu pandemic, as it’s known, did not arrive to a backdrop of anxiety about economic growth. That term came into more common use in the ensuing years; worry about inadequate growth was not the preoccupation it has been in the past decade.
[VIDEO] Ian Bremmer: The World Moves Too Fast for “Geopolitical Centuries” | Horizons Interview
Horizons presents an exclusive interview with Ian Bremmer, President and Founder of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media. The conversation explores the current state of global affairs, including the idea of a “geopolitical recession,” the rise of Asia, shifts in the domestic political landscape in the United States, transatlantic relations, the future of global governance, as well as the growing impact of artificial intelligence on international stability and economic transformation. The interview was conducted by Horizons Editor in Chief Vuk Jeremić and recorded in November 2025.
Read more
Horizons Discussion with Jeffrey Sachs on the Asia-Pacific Century
The Center for International Relations and Sustainable Development (CIRSD) hosted a high-level Horizons Discussion featuring Professor Jeffrey D. Sachs, one of the world’s most renowned intellectuals, in conversation with Vuk Jeremić, President of CIRSD and Editor-in-Chief of Horizons. The event marked the launch of the 32nd volume of Horizons, titled The Asia-Pacific Century.
Read more
When Development Falters: The Cost of Europe’s Inward Turn
At a time of growing global uncertainty and polarization, it can often be difficult to pinpoint the specific moments that will have the most pronounced impact on the long-term strength of our international system.
Read more
GPDI Co-Chair María Fernanda Espinosa Calls for UN Reform Centered on Preventive Diplomacy in Interview with GZERO Media
Paris — On the sidelines of the Paris Peace Forum, María Fernanda Espinosa, Co-Chair of the Global Preventive Diplomacy Initiative (GPDI) and former President of the United Nations General Assembly, spoke with GZERO Media’s Tony Maciulis about the urgent need to make global peace efforts more proactive through preventive diplomacy.
Read more
Author:
