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Whether after a protracted struggle or a rapid defeat, the Islamic State will lose control of Mosul in the face of the offensive to expel it. This naturally raises the question: What comes next for the Islamic State? But the answer depends on how you define the Islamic State, and which division of the movement you consider.
The Three Islamic States
Stratfor has long rejected the Islamic State's efforts to define itself as a single, global hierarchical entity. Instead, we consider the group to be made up of three distinct parts:
The Islamic State core.
Franchises or affiliated groups that have pledged allegiance to the core.
Grassroots Islamic State supporters who may or may not have some contact with the core or a franchise group.
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