In the Age of Emerging Eurasian Powerhouses, Bet on Uzbekistan

Beneath the ambitious and multi-dimensional reforms it has undertaken in recent years, Uzbekistan is rapidly becoming an important Central Asian middle power and a center of trade and connectivity linking Europe and East Asia. What the country’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev has been actively attempting is to remake Central Asia’s most populous nation into an emerging investment hub, capable of turning into a linchpin of regional economic dynamics.

At the heart of Uzbekistan’s strategic rise lies its nuanced approach to reforming what had previously been a highly bureaucratic system, liberalizing the investment environment, and enabling a greater flow of information. As part of the ongoing efforts to bring national trade regulations closer to WTO standards and qualify Uzbekistan for membership in the organization, President Mirziyoyev issued a decree on June 3 rd , 2024. The decree is notable for including a landmark provision of easing state control over access to information by citizens. While this move is indicative of a shift towards a more open society, it is tempered with measures to maintain regulatory oversight—an approach that is cautious, yet ultimately reformist in nature.

The accession of Uzbekistan to the WTO, planned for 2026, requires a number of complex procedures aimed at renewing the foundations of the country’s economy. In this context, Uzbekistan needs to eliminate subsidies for exports and bring customs duties in line with international requirements. Such steps should bring notable transformations in the domestic market since they will place additional demands on local business but facilitate transparency and competitiveness.

Parallel to these efforts, the further improvement of physical and logistical infrastructure goes hand in hand, for example, by the signing of the trilateral agreement on a China-Kyrgyzstan- Uzbekistan railway project in June of this year. Its signing marks a milestone for strategic cooperation within the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative. This railway, linking China’s Xinjiang Autonomous Region to Uzbekistan’s Andijan Region via Kyrgyzstan, is projected to significantly decrease the transit route between China and Europe, reducing freight transit time by as much as eight days. With an estimated cost of $8 billion, this is indeed an ambitious project and a reflection of Uzbekistan’s commitment to facilitating regional connectivity and economic integration.

Uzbekistan’s vision also goes beyond infrastructure developments. The agenda of doubling the country’s GDP by 2030 contemplates a green economy, modernization of infrastructure, and strong stimuli for the enhancement of private sector growth. These policies, if adopted, will attract significant foreign investment and spur sustainable economic development. Impressive GDP growth, with 6% in 2023 and 6.2% in the first quarter of 2024 according to the IMF, is reflective of how effective these policies have been.

The international community has not failed to notice the changes in Uzbekistan. The EBRD’s transitional report in 2018 praised the country’s strides in improving its business environment. Meanwhile, the remarkable expansion of Uzbekistan’s ties has been taking place across the board and with actors as diverse as Türkiye (on defense and transportation), Saudi Arabia (on energy), and China (on infrastructure investment) over the last eight years. In addition, as of June 2024, Uzbekistan became the very first nation state on the planet to receive a payment of $7.5 million from the World Bank for successfully reducing carbon emissions in the scope of the Bank’s iCRAFT program and fostering the development of a greener economy. Fully committed to its role of balancer, Uzbekistan has also subscribed to promoting China’s Global Development, Global Security, and Global Civilization Initiatives, which aim to advance the “peace through development” policy of the People’s Republic. While advancing large-scale infrastructure projects successfully negotiated with the Chinese government, Uzbekistan has also been devoted to integrating typically Western ideas into society. Mirziyoyev has notably increased civil liberties, especially in comparison to the era of his late predecessor, Islam Karimov. The eight years since he was first elected have seen a significantly liberalized Uzbek society, which involved, among other things, releasing numerous political prisoners like journalists and activists, and improving media freedom through reduced censorship and greater openness to diverse viewpoints. Furthermore, Mirziyoyev has introduced judicial reforms aimed at increasing transparency and reducing their dependence on the executive, implemented economic liberalization to attract foreign investment, and taken steps to enhance civil liberties by increasing freedom of assembly and reducing government surveillance over its citizens.

The complementarity of Uzbekistan’s reforms and strategic projects holds promise of a gradual rise in scope and complexity, as well as a more pronounced role for the Central Asian nation on the global scene. The balancing act that this country succeeds in maintaining between steady liberalization and cautious regulatory measures merely adds to far-reaching infrastructure ambitions, making the Central Asian state key to bridging the two continents of Europe and Asia. The political will of the country’s leadership to mobilize Uzbekistan toward further development will inevitably make the country poised to continue benefiting from expanded trade, investment, and regional cooperation, further cementing it as a central link of Eurasian connectivity.

It is still worth noting that no development, however positive, will receive its deserved recognition unless properly communicated to the international public. Despite consecutive years of success in transforming its regulatory framework and investment climate, Uzbekistan’s reformist resolve is yet to be matched by an overarching public diplomacy effort displaying its achievements. A clear need for enhancing communication strategies persists, as the international public has yet to learn about the transformative power that Uzbekistan might bring to the table—especially in terms of connectivity and development in an age of increasing global ruptures and divisions.

Vuk Jeremić is President of the Center for International Relations and Sustainable Development and a Professor of Practice at the Paris School of International Affairs at Sciences Po. He formerly served as Serbia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs and President of the United Nations General Assembly.

Stefan Antić is a Senior Research Fellow at the Center for International Relations and Sustainable Development and Managing Editor of Horizons, a quarterly English-language magazine.

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