In what can only be described as the most tumultuous 72 hours in recent French political history, the country has witnessed a whirlwind of events that have left its political landscape in chaos. Following a significant defeat in the EU elections to Le Pen's Rassemblement National (RN), President Emmanuel Macron took the drastic step of dissolving the National Assembly and calling for new elections on June 30th.
This move triggered a wave of panic across the French political spectrum. With parties given only a weekend to present their candidates and form strategies, the pressure was immense. The left-wing factions swiftly responded by announcing the creation of a "Popular Front," uniting all left-wing parties. Raphael Glucksmann, the Socialist Party's head candidate for the EU elections, attempted to derail this alliance with a series of preconditions on live TV, but his efforts were in vain. The left moved forward, effectively sidelining Glucksmann, who became a subject of memes for his failed coup.
On the right, the situation escalated into utter chaos. Éric Ciotti, president of Les Républicains (LR), declared an alliance with Le Pen, which led to immediate backlash from top officials within his party. They demanded his resignation, claiming he spoke only for himself. In a dramatic turn, Ciotti closed down the party headquarters to prevent his ousting. The party's general secretary, Annie Genevard, eventually gained access using spare keys, and the political bureau of LR voted to remove Ciotti from his position. However, Ciotti refused to accept this decision, arguing the meeting was illegitimate and maintaining his claim to the presidency.
The infighting within LR left the party in disarray, with conflicting claims about leadership and potential alliances with RN. Ciotti insisted that 80 LR MPs supported him and were prepared to campaign with Le Pen. His ally, Vice-President Guilhem Carayon, echoed this sentiment, stating their alignment with Le Pen's ideas. The party appeared on the brink of implosion, divided and leaderless.
Further right, the turmoil continued as Marion Maréchal, Jean-Marie Le Pen's granddaughter, announced her desire to ally with RN, creating friction with Éric Zemmour, leader of the party Reconquête. Zemmour, blindsided by Maréchal's announcement, accused her of betrayal. He refused to form an alliance and decided to field his own candidates, leading to the effective collapse of Reconquête.
Macron's Gamble: A Strategic Move to Counter Le Pen's Rise
President Macron's decision to dissolve the National Assembly and call for snap elections was not merely a reaction to defeat; it was a calculated gamble with multiple strategic objectives. The move aims to deny the right-wing their victory lap, force them back into campaign mode, and coalesce voters around more moderate alternatives.
By calling for elections immediately after the EU defeat, Macron hoped to prevent his opponents from getting comfortable and force them into another grueling campaign. This strategy is particularly aimed at the far-right, whose rise he believes could mobilize moderate and left-leaning voters against them. Macron is banking on the fear of the far-right coming to power to unify voters around his alliance or other moderate parties that could be more amenable to his administration.
The nature of France's legislative elections, held in two rounds a week apart, also plays into Macron's strategy. A candidate can only win in the first round by securing more than 50% of the vote. If no candidate achieves this, the top two candidates, or any candidate receiving votes equivalent to at least 12.5% of eligible voters, advance to the runoff. This system often disadvantages parties considered extreme, as their broad but shallow support base struggles to consolidate a majority in the runoff, where voters can unite against them.
Macron's announcement sets the groundwork for a campaign focused on the threat posed by the far-right. While this argument has been effective in the past, the increasing mainstream acceptance of the RN poses a new challenge. The potency of the anti-far-right narrative may be waning, as evidenced by the RN's recent electoral gains.
Macron's decision was reportedly contentious within his own team. Prime Minister Gabriel Atal is said to have urged Macron to avoid dissolving the National Assembly and even offered his resignation. This internal division highlights the high stakes of Macron's gamble.
Looking ahead, Macron might be willing to risk a worst-case scenario where the RN wins the legislative election and Jordan Bardella becomes prime minister. This could be part of a longer-term strategy aimed at the 2027 presidential election. By catching his opponents off guard and unprepared, Macron hopes to create a sense of urgency and destabilize their campaigns.
The French president's decision to dissolve the National Assembly and call for snap elections is a bold move fraught with significant risks and potential benefits. It highlights the deep strategic planning behind his administration's efforts to counter the rise of the far-right and secure a more stable political future for France. The past 72 hours have starkly exposed the deep dysfunction and fragmentation within French politics. Edging closer to the election date, the outcome of this gamble will be crutial in setting the stage for the French political scene for the upcoming decade.
Stefan Jovanovic is a political expert currently working at the Center for International Relations and Sustainable Development (CIRSD). He formerly served as an MP in the Serbian National Assembly and Serbia's representative at the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe
