Manuel Augusto is a former Minister of External Relations of Angola, a Member of the Angolan Parliament, and the Pan-African Parliament.

From meeting rooms to oil rigs, Africa is writing its own story of transformation amid global trade tensions and a mandatory energy transition.

In a world undergoing rapid change—characterized by global dynamics that are shaking the foundations on which the system of international relations and multilateralism has been based for the last eight decades, as a privileged platform for coexistence and cooperation between states and peoples—Africa is faced with an apparent paradox: increased difficulties versus unique and almost infinite opportunities to reduce its dependence.

Angola’s President João Lourenço assumes chairmanship of the African Union | Source: AU HHS

 

In fact, the signs of a sudden turnaround in the international order established after the end of World War II, although not entirely surprising, have forced individual governments and political-economic blocs on various continents to react, more or less emotionally, with a view to defending their interests, minimizing economic damage, and maintaining social peace.

 

But while recent events have made headlines in the international media, triggering a flurry of analysis, commentary, and speculation, they are nonetheless part of a mostly logical sequence in the irreversible transformation of the world order—driven by both old and new forces, including natural ones such as those related to climate change.

 

Today, Africa is not just a story of potential—it is a continent on the move. From vibrant cities to sprawling savannahs, from coastlines to metropolitan capitals, new ideas are emerging and forcing a redefinition of how the world sees Africa—and how Africa sees itself. From the technology centers in Lagos, Johannesburg, or Cairo to the offshore energy fields in Angola and Algeria, a new generation of entrepreneurial leaders and decision-makers is charting a bold future.

 

But how does this transformation manifest itself in the political, business, and energy sectors? And what happens when global powers change the rules of the game with tariffs and unstable trade dynamics, as part of a conflict in which the continent is neither the author nor the protagonist?

 

Let’s explore this changing African scenario.

 

Politics: Between Rupture, Pressure, and Progress 

The current political situation in Africa is set against a backdrop in which, on the one hand, there is a burning desire to break away from the neo-colonial reminiscences that have persisted since the end of colonialism and the beginning of political independence just under 70 years ago, and, on the other hand, growing pressure to renew its leadership—driven by an increasingly young and globalized society.

 

Indeed, with an estimated population of 1.542 billion people in 2025, according to Worldometer—representing 18.83 percent of the world’s population—the African continent has the youngest population in the world, with around 60 percent under the age of 25. Now numbering 400 million people between the ages of 15 and 35, projections based on demographic growth rates estimate that by 2050, the young African population will exceed 830 million, contributing to the fact that by 2075, a third of the world’s population will be African.

 

This age group’s awareness of the paradox that exists between the abundance of natural resources and the high level of poverty (extreme, in many places) that still prevails in their countries is leading them to challenge, with increasing sharpness, the unequal nature of most partnership and cooperation relations between the continent and the rest of the world.

 

The pressure exerted on the established political powers—boosted by the growing influence of social networks as privileged vehicles of expression and communication, and by civil society—is beginning to bear fruit, leading parties to adapt their strategies and programs to the popular demand for more responsible, transparent, and patriotic governance.

 

In some regions, such as the Sahel, the responses—or lack thereof—of ruling regimes have brought about different outcomes, some of them unconventional, even marking the return of the military coup d’état phenomenon, which had seemed to be a thing of the past.

 

Various arguments are put forward on both sides of this phenomenon—namely, the inability of governments to find positive solutions to internal economic and social challenges, or external interference resulting from the geostrategic repositioning of the world’s major powers.

 

Whatever the truth—and based on the principle that virtue lies in the middle—the reality is that Africa is currently experiencing interesting dynamics that should enable it to play an active role in the aforementioned global reordering of the system of international relations, presenting itself as a bloc capable of defending its interests, particularly in terms of leveraging the abundance and diversity of its natural resources and its geostrategic location.

 

In order to do this, however—and taking into account the continent’s developmental lag compared to others—it is urgent that African collective institutions improve their organization and functioning so they can present themselves as valid interlocutors at the global negotiating table.

 

This is the case with the African Union (AU). The largest pan-African intergovernmental organization, founded and headquartered in the Ethiopian capital of Addis Ababa since 1963, embarked on a reform process in 2018 aimed at making it more effective and achieving a greater degree of financial independence. This enabled it to design and implement continental cooperation and integration programs less influenced by the dictates of foreign partners.

 

Led by Rwandan President Paul Kagame, this reform plan has come up against the resistance of some member states, which are reluctant to partially divest their sovereignty—as was the case with the European Union.

 

The EU, curiously, continues to be the main provider of financial funds and technical assistance for AU programs, in the face of the very tenuous results of the strategies of self-financing and diversification of sources postulated by the 2018 reform project.

 

China, as part of its strategy to enlarge and consolidate its presence in Africa, has also made great strides in institutional cooperation with the AU, notably through the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation, established in October 2000.

 

The resistance of some member states is even greater when it comes to the AU intervening in the political or constitutional affairs of their countries, or even in disputes between some of them, preferring instead to rely on regional organizations. (For the AU, the continent is divided into five regions: north, south, east, west, and central—to which a sixth, that of the Diaspora, symbolically represented by the CARICOM countries, has now been added.) These preferences are often shielded by the principle of UN subsidiarity.

 

In fact, despite the existence of a Peace and Security Council (PSC) made up of 15 members—three per region—in very few cases has this executive body of the AU been able to impose itself as a key structure in the search for peace and stability solutions.

 

“This minimalist vision of the role of the African Union Commission (the executive body of the AU) has been accentuated by the multiplication of institutional crises (Chad), coups d’état (Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea, Gabon), post-electoral crises (Zimbabwe, Mozambique), conflicts (Sudan, Tigray in Ethiopia...)” says Benjamim Augé, associate researcher at the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI).

 

In his April 2025 IFRI briefing, the eminent African scholar argued: 

 

“In reality, numerous AU member states seek to delay as much as possible, and even avoid, the appropriation by the 15 PSC members of their institutional or security disputes.

 

They favor discussions within sub-regional organizations, where it is easier to manage debates with nearby countries, despite proven inefficiency, as demonstrated by the performance of the SADC in Mozambique or the East African Community (EAC) in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

 

The PSC seems particularly powerless in the face of the conflict in the DRC. None of the protagonists is really counting on the pan-African organization to resolve it, thus leaving the field open to other actors, such as Qatar, to accompany a peace process that includes M23.

 

The trend towards subsidiarity in the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA) gives primacy to regional organizations and weakens the role of the AU.”

 

It is clear that the framework described above must change—and the sooner, the better—so that Africa can take advantage of the opportunities offered by the current global “turbulence” and become an active participant in the ongoing transformations towards a probable new international order.

 

The functioning of the presidency of the AU Bureau, which rotates annually and is made up of five Heads of State or Government representing the aforementioned five regions, is therefore of particular importance.

 

Over time, practice has shown that the weight of the country of origin of the pro tempore President—but above all, his personal charisma and ability to articulate—have contributed to the achievement of certain endeavors which, combined with other endogenous and exogenous elements, represent significant gains and irreversible milestones for the organization.

 

This is the case with the permanent member status in the G20, obtained at the summit of this global platform, held in New Delhi, India, in September 2023.

 

Azali Assoumani, Head of State of the Republic of the Comoros, was then the Chairman-in-Office of the AU Bureau.

 

There are therefore justified expectations that 2025 may see some progress in this direction, following the election, by the February 2025 Summit, of João Lourenço, the President of the Republic of Angola, as AU Leader until February 2026.

 

His well-known rigor and seriousness on governance, as well as his belief in the continent’s potential, and his identification of the structuring sectors (energy and communication infrastructures, digital economy, etc.) make the member states hopeful that he will be the driving force behind a more ambitious stance for the continent, and that he will use his country’s positive international exposure to advance the 2063 Agenda—the major development goal set by the AU.

 

So, Africa’s political landscape is still dynamic. While some countries are making remarkable progress in democracy, transparency, and civic participation, others are still facing political crises and governance challenges.

 

Nonetheless, a collective shift can be observed.

 

However, external influence remains strong. From China’s infrastructure investments to Russia’s military involvement and the new U.S. trade approaches, African governments are learning to negotiate in an increasingly complex international landscape—while trying to prioritize their own development agendas.

 

Business: A New Era in the Making

Entrepreneurship in Africa is booming. Whether it’s Nigeria’s fintech, Kenya’s agri-tech, or South Africa’s green innovation, the continent is embracing digital transformation and rewriting the narrative of its economies.

 

Despite the enthusiasm, challenges remain—limited access to finance, infrastructure deficiencies, and regulatory instability continue to hamper growth. At the same time, there is a strong movement towards intra-African collaboration, driven by the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

 

If fully implemented, the AfCFTA could become one of the largest free trade zones in the world, uniting more than 1.5 billion people and creating opportunities for African products and services.

 

Africa’s real GDP was forecast to grow by 4 percent in 2023 and 3.8 percent in 2024, according to the African Development Bank (AfDB). East Africa was expected to lead growth, with 4.9 percent in 2024, followed by Central Africa with 4.1 percent and West Africa with 4.2 percent. North Africa and Southern Africa were also expected to grow, with rates of 3.6 percent and 2.2 percent, respectively, in 2024.

 

Africa is rich in mineral resources, including gold, diamonds, oil, natural gas, uranium, and a variety of other metallic and non-metallic minerals. South Africa is the world’s largest producer of chrome, platinum group metals, and manganese. Other African countries, such as Angola and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, also have significant mineral reserves.

 

In a list compiled by Google, here are some of Africa’s main mineral resources:

 

Oil and Natural Gas:

Africa is one of the world’s leading producers of oil and natural gas, with countries such as Nigeria, Algeria, and Angola leading in production.

 

Gold:

Africa has a rich history in gold production, with countries like South Africa and Ghana leading the way.

 

Diamonds:

Africa is one of the world’s leading suppliers of diamonds, with countries such as Botswana, South Africa, and Angola being key producers.

 

Uranium:

The continent is home to 25 percent of the world’s uranium reserves, with countries such as Namibia, Niger, and Nigeria holding major deposits.

 

Other Metallic Minerals:

Africa also has reserves of other metallic minerals, such as iron, manganese, copper, bauxite, zinc, nickel, cobalt, and lead.

 

Non-Metallic Minerals:

Africa has reserves of non-metallic minerals such as phosphates, graphite, and lithium, which are important for the production of batteries and other technologies.

 

Rare Earth Minerals:

Africa also holds a significant amount of rare earth minerals, essential for the production of electronics and other advanced technologies.

 

From the list above, it is easy to see the importance of Africa’s natural resources in the global economy, especially as the continent is home to large reserves of some of the world’s most sought-after raw and strategic materials.

 

Mineral resources can be an important driver of economic growth and a generator of jobs, taxes, and exports for many African countries. However, their exploitation can have negative impacts, such as environmental degradation, the emergence of trafficking and illicit mining networks, the exploitation of child labor, and the rise of armed gangs. It is therefore crucial that the development of the sector is characterized by responsible and environmentally sustainable exploitation, without neglecting the direct benefits for local communities.

 

Tariffs and Trade Tensions: Africa in the Crossfire

Although they are not the main target, African countries are feeling the effects of tariffs imposed by the United States, especially on Chinese products. As global supply chains reconfigure, many African markets are being flooded with redirected products—creating both opportunities and challenges.

 

On the one hand, African consumers benefit from cheaper goods; on the other, local producers face unfair competition. In commodity-exporting countries, trade tensions also affect prices and access to finance.

 

This instability has sparked a deeper reflection on commercial autonomy. Many African governments are now looking to diversify partnerships, reduce historical dependencies, and strengthen trade ties within the continent itself (AfCFTA).

 

For example, with the end of the African Growth and Opportunity Act on the horizon, the time is ripe to rethink trade relations with the United States and other global economic powers, establishing a new model that better reflects African realities and ambitions.

 

Looking to the Future: The African Century in the Making

Africa’s future is not a single narrative, but a mosaic of fast-paced cities, rural innovation, political awakening, and economic reinvention. Each region of the continent has its own voice, but the common thread is clear: Africa is ready to write its own destiny.

 

As the world turns to the continent, its internal dynamics become more important: visionary leadership, regional cooperation, and strategic investment are indispensable elements for Africa not only to survive global change, but to thrive on its own terms. History is still being written. But one thing is certain: Africa’s definitive chapter will be written by Africans.

 

As a conclusion, I would like to end this text by quoting an excerpt from the acceptance speech of President João Lourenço of the Republic of Angola, delivered at his inauguration as President pro tempore of the AU during the 38th Ordinary Assembly of Heads of State and Government, in Addis Ababa, on February 15th, 2025.

 

“Excellencies, Ladies and Gentlemen,

 

During this Conference, we will debate matters of great importance for the organization, functioning, and growth of the African Union, as well as the practical operationalization of the issue of “Justice for Africans and Afro-descendants through Reparations,” which is the theme chosen for this year, and also the one Angola has selected for its presidency, centered on the “importance of investment in infrastructure as a driver of Africa’s development.”

 

The combination of these two aspects can lead us to build a channel of communication and dialogue with our international partners, helping them understand the importance and advantage of cooperating with a developed, industrialized Africa, capable of overcoming hunger, poverty, misery, and unemployment, thus reducing the likelihood of armed conflicts and illegal migration towards their borders.

 

We will have the opportunity to address these issues at the 4th International Conference on Financing for Development, to be held in Seville, Spain, from June 30 to July 4, 2025, as it represents a historic opportunity to redefine the rules of global financing based on economic justice and inclusion.

 

Given the commitments assumed in previous conferences — but not always fulfilled — notably the Monterrey Consensus, the Doha Declaration, and the Addis Ababa Action Agenda, the 4th Conference in Seville aims to respond to the persistent challenges in development financing and foster the adoption of innovative and effective solutions.

Topics such as fiscal justice, debt relief, climate financing, reforms in global financial institutions, and social inclusion must receive our attention so that we can adopt a common position that strengthens the continent’s influence in global financial governance, reduces borrowing costs, and facilitates access to the resources needed to achieve sustainable development.

 

The achievement of these objectives will surely create synergies that will boost and expand trade exchanges, cultural, technical, technological, scientific exchanges, and other areas that can generate significant benefits for all parties.

 

We believe that the plans we outline for our countries as leaders include programs to be executed with a strong sense of priority in the area of key infrastructure, notably road and rail networks, ports and airports, power generation plants, and the associated transmission and distribution lines, all of which are absolutely indispensable for the industrialization of our continent and for improving the living conditions of our populations.

 

During Angola’s pro tempore presidency of the African Union, which begins today, we intend to launch, in coordination with all members of our institution, a broad plan to attract investments and raise significant financial resources from our major international partners, so that the African Union Commission can lay the foundations and define the infrastructure projects to be carried out.

 

I highlight the contribution that Angola can make to Africa’s development by making available its surplus energy to help meet the needs of various countries in this sector.

Given its strategic relevance for the transport of various products, intra-African trade, and Africa’s trade with the rest of the world, I would like to emphasize the importance of the Lobito Corridor and Tanzania’s TAZARA Railway, which can play an essential role in linking African countries and promoting trade under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

 

In light of what I mentioned earlier, I believe we must have a well-defined strategy to reap significant benefits from the fact that the African Union is now a member of the G20 — a crucial achievement to ensure our continent plays an active role in global economic decision-making.

 

The strategic priorities of Angola’s presidency are generally aligned with the priority actions defined at the continental level for the acceleration of the Second Ten-Year Implementation Plan of Agenda 2063, covering the 2024–2033 period. These priorities are focused on Transport and Connectivity Infrastructure, Energy and Natural Resources, Peace and Security, Agriculture and the Blue Economy, Continental Integration and the Free Trade Area, Education and Empowerment, and Strategic Partnerships.

 

Within these broad guidelines, the issue of Peace and Security acquires a central importance, as it is one of the main prerequisites for achieving the aspirations contained in the African Union’s Agenda 2063, particularly the program to “Silence the Guns by 2030,” which seeks to transform Africa into a peaceful and secure region, confident in a promising future and prosperity for all Africans committed to putting our continent on the path of development.

 

In this regard, I believe it is essential that we look to the 3rd United Nations Ocean Conference, scheduled for this year in Nice, France, as an opportunity to discuss the major concerns affecting our continent on this matter.

 

With more than thirty coastal countries, our continent must aim to protect marine ecosystems, promote a sustainable blue economy, and intensify actions against illegal fishing, marine pollution, and climate change — challenges of enormous proportions that we must constantly address.

 

During Angola’s presidency this year, we will work in coordination with the African Union Commission to mobilize greater financial resources by strengthening the contributions of each Member State, so that we can equip ourselves with the necessary resources to implement projects and programs at the continental level, thereby reducing dependency on external financing.

 

We are living through an extremely challenging international environment, given the devastating effects of the conflicts our continent faces, as well as those unfolding in Eastern Europe and the Middle East.

 

Nevertheless, we are fully convinced that if we join forces and unite our efforts, we will overcome these great challenges and build the Africa we dream of — an Africa with an increasingly active voice in addressing the major problems facing Humanity.

 

It is in this context that I believe we must continue to act as one body to ensure that the United Nations becomes more inclusive and aligned with today’s challenges and opportunities. Reform of the Security Council must continue to be a fundamental priority for our continent, and it is crucial that we reaffirm our commitment to the Ezulwini Consensus and the 2005 Sirte Declaration, advocating for two Permanent Member seats with the right of veto and all associated privileges.”

 

Africa definitely doesn’t want to be left behind. 

 

 

Back to Table of Contents