Vladimir Norov is a former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Uzbekistan and Secretary-General of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

By 2030, the world will be home to 1.3 billion young people, highlighting their crucial role in development, especially in developing countries where 90 percent of the world’s youth reside. The Central Asian region is experiencing a demographic boom, with more than half of its population under the age of 30.

The definition of “youth” varies slightly across the four Central Asian countries: 14-29 years in Kazakhstan, 14-28 in Kyrgyzstan, and 14-30 in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. However, the lower age limit of 14 years is consistent across the region. The “demographic dividend” in Central Asia requires viewing youth as a strategic resource for development and peace, capable of making significant contributions to addressing social, economic, and ideological challenges in the region.

Uzbekistan’s President Mirziyoyev visits the country's IT Park, one of the landmarks of the systemic effort to provide sustainable opportunities for Central Asian youth.

Despite this potential, many young people in Central Asia face obstacles to realizing their full potential due to high unemployment rates. For a long time, the Russian market was the main source of income for young labor migrants from Central Asia. Since 2022, the number of migrants entering Russia annually has remained around 3 million. Remittances have always been crucial for national economies, accounting for up to 40 percent of GDP in Tajikistan, and more than 20 percent in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan.

In 2021, the migration increase (the difference between departing and arriving migrants) reached nearly 500,000 people. However, in 2022, it dropped to 62,000 due to a decrease in migrants’earnings from sanctions and, most notably, the recruitment of migrants for the ongoing war in Ukraine.

After Russia, Türkiye is the second-largest destination for labor migration, with over 200,000 Central Asians now working there. Other popular destinations include South Korea, which increased its quota for Uzbeks to 100,000 people in 2024, and the UAE, which recently raised its quota from 15,000 to 1 million. Saudi Arabia has also taken notice of the region’s labor potential, allocating 100,000 jobs.

A notable trend is the increasing interest from Western countries in labor migrants from Central Asia. The United Kingdom has raised its quotas for Uzbek migrants to 10,000, Kyrgyz migrants to 8,000, and Tajik migrants to 1,000. There is also growing interest in Central Asian workers in EU countries, particularly in Eastern Europe. For example, Slovakia faces a 75 percent shortage of personnel, leading to over 1,500 Uzbek migrants working at Slovakia’s Volkswagen plant in 2023. Their average earnings range from €1,200 to €1,600, significantly higher than Russian salaries. Nearly 70 percent of labor migrants from Central Asia are under the age of 35, with 33.3 percent aged 18 to 25 and another 33.3 percent aged 26 to 35.

Unlike previous generations that primarily migrated for physical labor, today’s Central Asian youth are increasingly seeking educational opportunities abroad. Between 2000 and 2017, over 144,000 Central Asian students enrolled in Chinese universities.

The surge in young people learning Chinese in Central Asia is also driven by migration trends to the UAE in search of job opportunities. The number of Chinese nationals in the UAE doubled to 400,000 by 2019, and around 6,000 Chinese companies now operate there. For many young Central Asians, educational migration is seen as a stepping stone to emigrate from their home countries.

It is concerning that many ambitious, creative, and capable young people do not see prospects in their home countries and seek opportunities elsewhere, attempting to apply their skills in different political and economic systems.

This poses a serious challenge for Central Asian countries implementing economic reforms, as they face a shortage of qualified specialists.

Currently, there are no precise, systematized data on educational migration from Central Asia. Ministries and agencies typically record the migration of students funded by national budgets. However, a significant portion of Central Asian students studies abroad at their own expense or through international scholarships, which is not reflected in national statistics.

To estimate the number of Central Asians studying abroad, it is advisable to use aggregate data from relevant ministries and agencies, as well as from countries with significant volumes of educational migration from Central Asia.

A regional field study conducted in 2019 by national experts and researchers from Central Asian countries, with support from the International Organization for Migration mission in Kazakhstan and the Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies under the President of Kazakhstan, found that while many young people prefer to leave, a significant portion wish to return after obtaining education or accumulating capital.

Educational migrants are attracted by factors such as higher socio-economic development abroad, high standards of living, quality healthcare and education, comfortable living conditions, social security, fair competition, and opportunities for business development.

The second most important group of factors involves a high level of personal security, trust in law enforcement agencies, low levels of corruption, the absence of protectionism and discrimination, a strong civil society and democratic institutions, a developed system of local self-government, opportunities to participate in national life, adherence to the rule of law, and clear, transparent rules of conduct for all.

Respondents also highlighted the wide opportunities for professional development, career growth, and self-realization in competitive environments as attractive factors in foreign countries.

Young educational migrants abroad have several reasons for potentially returning home. The main reasons include securing a well-paid job and improving their socio-economic situation (including enhancements to the financial system), as well as having clear career prospects. Other factors include respect for political rights and freedoms, the development of civil society institutions, and significant improvements in the fight against corruption and nepotism, alongside radical improvements in education and healthcare.

External youth migration from Central Asian countries significantly impacts the general situation in the region and shapes trends in its socio-demographic, economic, and political development.

Youth migration, while creating new opportunities for development, also poses risks and challenges to the stable development of societies and states. The most serious negative impact is the outflow of skilled and highly qualified specialists, known as the “brain drain.”

All Central Asian countries have a surplus of young labor, and their current economic development models cannot generate enough job growth to absorb this labor force. Additionally, these countries lag in technological development, resulting in a shortage of jobs for highly educated and qualified specialists.

Young citizens from Central Asia who are skilled and highly qualified understand their country’s situation well, evaluate it thoroughly, and build their life strategies accordingly. Surveys show that they believe meaningful change in Central Asian countries can only occur at a systemic level; individual “point measures” are unlikely to be effective and therefore do not influence their decision to emigrate.

Increasing investment in the education system, opening new higher education institutions focused on new technologies, and sending students abroad, while failing to develop innovative and high-tech sectors domestically, will likely only encourage young specialists to migrate to the Russian Federation, the EU, the United States, or other developed and developing Asian countries. This means that Central Asian countries might end up financing the development of innovation economies in these foreign countries.

The risk of low returns on investment without a fully developed ecosystem is also present in local innovative start-ups. This situation creates risks for brain drain to countries with established start-up ecosystems.

Youth migration from Central Asian countries creates challenges for all these nations, although it should be noted that the intensity varies. Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan face significant risks and problems due to the outflow of both a statistically significant number of labor resources and an intensive departure of skilled labor, creative youth, and effective entrepreneurs.

To address these challenges, Central Asian governments and specialized ministries should review and streamline the procedures for the nostrification of foreign scientific degrees.

In July 2019, Uzbekistan approved a simplified procedure for the nostrification of diplomas from foreign universities. Under the new procedure, applications for recognition of educational documents are accepted only through State Service Centers or the Single Portal of Interactive State Services. Additionally, educational documents from foreign institutions ranked in the top 1,000 by internationally recognized organizations will be recognized and nostrified directly, without special tests.

In countries with developed scientific sectors, conditions for young scientists are well-established with no or few bureaucratic obstacles, making science thrive as a result. Science needs freedom, not bureaucracy.

Given the current state of scientific development in the region, additional bureaucratic barriers do not encourage specialists with foreign degrees to work in local scientific and educational institutions. Consequently, the educational and scientific sector loses a significant potential of new specialists who could reform educational programs, attract foreign partners, and create international cooperation programs.

Increased competition for qualified and highly skilled human resources among developed and rapidly developing countries, and the perception of educational migration as a means to boost national competitiveness and human capital, are global trends today.

These trends affect all Central Asian countries and largely determine their development pace and that of the region as a whole. The key question for these countries is whether youth migration contributes to or hinders their development. As youth migrate, one of their most valuable resources—human capital—shifts from the country of origin to the host country.

Moreover, considering that migration is most intense among individuals aged 19-35 and least among adolescents aged 12-16, it is evident that the countries of origin incur significant costs for the socialization and basic education of young people, the benefits of which are reaped by the host countries.

Therefore, it is crucial to create conditions that encourage young people to stay and contribute their knowledge and skills to the development of their home countries.

Developing strategies to manage youth migration, particularly through the lens of educational migration, can contribute to the sustainable development of Central Asian countries and harness the potential of youth for regional development and prosperity.

In today’s world, the focus of migration studies is predominantly on host countries, which emphasize the opportunities and risks associated with migration. However, migration processes also have significant socio-economic impacts on countries of origin. An in-depth and systematic analysis of these impacts remains limited, highlighting the need for Central Asian countries to develop appropriate strategies to address these challenges effectively.

Given the growing interest in education and work abroad, it is crucial to develop educational programs that prepare young people for global competition and modern labor market demands.

Experience shows that social entrepreneurship can help young people create sustainable and inclusive workplaces. Young social entrepreneurs possess the potential to utilize advanced technologies to address systemic social problems innovatively and effectively.

Key emerging technologies can significantly contribute to addressing social needs and challenges in all countries, regardless of their development level. Since young people are often the first to adopt new technologies, they are well-positioned to capitalize on innovations in this field to enhance the impact of social entrepreneurship.

Today’s youth in many countries, including Central Asia, are entering the workforce at a pivotal moment as artificial intelligence begins to transform it. This prospect can evoke mixed emotions. On the one hand, AI has the potential to help them work faster and more efficiently, making their jobs more enjoyable. On the other hand, there is concern that AI is reshaping the labor market as they start their careers.

A recent PWC study sheds light on these issues, confirming that while AI is radically changing the world of work, young people who learn to harness its potential could unlock significant opportunities. PWC’s 2024 “Workforce Hopes and Fears” survey indicates that many young people aged 18 to 25 are eager to use AI, with 70 percent believing that generative AI empowers them.

It is essential to recognize that AI is transforming the way we work and what skills are needed to thrive in a world of intelligent machines and cognitive computing.

Developing in-house AI talent in Central Asian countries is critical for sustainable growth and innovation, as well as for creating job opportunities for highly skilled young people to return home. This involves both upskilling existing employees and recruiting new talent with specialized knowledge in AI.

Hiring staff based on skills and abilities rather than traditional criteria, such as degrees or work experience, can help young people find jobs and excel in the AI era. A skills-based approach offers greater flexibility in hiring—essential as AI rapidly changes the skills required for jobs. This approach can also provide valuable opportunities for talented young people who may not have extensive work experience.

Central Asian countries should invest in education and training programs that equip young people with the skills needed to succeed in a technology-driven world. This includes promoting STEM education, fostering lifelong learning, and providing access to resources for upskilling and reskilling.

Online learning platforms, micro-credentials, and collaborative initiatives between educational institutions and industry can support these efforts and accelerate the transition to a greener, more efficient, and inclusive world with accessible job opportunities and skill development pathways.

The good news is that skills development can be rapid, and online learning provides a level playing field: individuals at all levels of education, including those without formal degrees, can acquire new skills effectively.

However, individual students and workers cannot navigate these challenges alone. Governments must provide resources and a strategic roadmap.

This presents a significant and unprecedented dual challenge for policymakers: governments must balance support for innovation with regulation to ensure new technologies are safe while also supporting workers through social safety nets, care systems, and job centers. Major investments in skills systems, rapid certification, and partnerships with the education sector, businesses, and nonprofits are crucial to driving large-scale change.

With the adoption of AI, small and medium-sized businesses will create a disproportionate number of new jobs globally. Therefore, the freedom of entrepreneurs and investors to create and grow businesses will be more important than ever as new technologies become more accessible.

A more flexible and free labor market should allow for faster transitions between sectors and businesses as job roles evolve. Countries that are less attractive to entrepreneurs and investors due to lower economic freedom and tightly regulated labor markets may face higher unemployment.

Conversely, countries with open and free markets will continue to generate new jobs to replace those lost.

Greater use of artificial intelligence and related technologies will boost productivity and positively impact GDP growth. Increased GDP will enhance a country’s resources and improve the government’s capacity to invest in various sectors.

In October 2023, China’s Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security solicited public input on new occupations, receiving more than 430 suggestions—over double the number received in 2021. About a quarter of these suggestions were related to the digital economy, intelligent manufacturing, information technology, and modern services. Professionals who can skillfully integrate AI technologies with traditional industry knowledge are becoming highly sought after.

However, in many countries, including Central Asian nations, only a small fraction of educational initiatives focus on AI, and they are not yet fully integrated into most education systems. Universities play a critical role in supporting AI-based transformation. In a rapidly changing world where AI and digital technologies redefine knowledge and work boundaries, education systems must adapt to these new realities.

Traditional education in Central Asian countries does not fully meet modern labor market requirements and needs urgent revision. Training programs should not only include technical training but also promote proficiency in artificial intelligence across the organization so that young employees can effectively understand and utilize AI in their work.

Creating innovation labs focused on artificial intelligence, big data, and the Internet of Things will be critical. These labs should allow students to participate in real-world projects, such as developing applications for adaptive learning or intelligent energy management systems.

Curriculum reform should incorporate twenty-first-century digital competencies and skills, such as critical thinking, problem solving, and creativity. Critical thinking is especially important in a world increasingly influenced by artificial intelligence. It involves not only understanding and using technology but also analyzing its implications, assessing its impact, and ensuring its ethical application.

The challenge is to balance these new demands without losing sight of fundamental disciplines and humanistic skills, such as interpersonal communication, entrepreneurship, and adaptation to new environments.

As data grows exponentially, skills in analyzing and interpreting data are invaluable for making informed decisions and identifying insights to drive innovation. This skill set is in high demand across all industries and is essential for staying relevant in today’s data-driven world. With the shift towards cloud-based solutions, understanding cloud architecture, services, and best practices is also crucial. This knowledge enables technical professionals to develop scalable, efficient, and cost-effective systems, ensuring they remain competitive and versatile in an evolving technology environment.

Future technical professionals should also be knowledgeable about quantum computing and quantum artificial intelligence. These technologies are expected to revolutionize many industries by accelerating complex tasks and opening up new opportunities in data analysis, machine learning, and optimization.

Integrating concepts of digital security and ethics will be crucial. Students and faculty need to be aware of the risks and responsibilities associated with using digital technologies. Given the increasing frequency and complexity of cyber threats, understanding cybersecurity is essential. Introducing cyber education modules to encourage students to consider the social and ethical implications of technology, using international case studies, represents a significant step forward.

Ensuring access and inclusivity for all students, regardless of location or socio-economic status, is vital. Everyone should have access to quality education and new technologies, particularly those from families with limited resources. This challenge involves not only infrastructure but also inclusive pedagogical strategies. Educators’ professional development must keep pace with new technologies and teaching methods. Offering ongoing training will enable them to integrate technology into their teaching practices, promoting more interactive and engaging learning experiences. Creating courses on virtual learning tools and augmented reality will help teachers incorporate these technologies into their instruction.

The rapid advancement of technology, especially artificial intelligence, means that job roles and required skills will continually evolve. The education system must adapt to these changes in a sustainable and flexible manner, ensuring that investments in educational technology are both sustainable and effective.

Although Central Asian states currently lag behind in digital development compared to other regions, it is worth noting the positive policies their governments are implementing to accelerate the introduction of digital technologies and train young ICT professionals. Programs such as Uzbekistan’s “One Million IT Specialists” and regional initiatives to improve Internet access and develop digital infrastructure play a crucial role in preparing young people for the digital economy and providing them with professional development opportunities.

To reduce the digital divide in Central Asia, attention should be given to developing appropriate infrastructure, ensuring high-speed Internet access, and supporting youth educational programs in information and communications technology. Recognizing the growing importance of artificial intelligence technologies, Central Asian countries are actively implementing modern technologies across various socio-economic sectors to stimulate growth and progress, opening new opportunities and shaping a prosperous future.

Central Asian governments are leading initiatives to promote innovation in artificial intelligence. Expected strategies include digitalizing the economy, investing in AI research and development, ensuring access to information resources and competencies for domestic enterprises and specialists, creating an ecosystem for innovative developments, and fostering international cooperation in AI. These strategies aim to make the region a hub for digital technologies and attract global IT companies and specialists. To coordinate AI policy, relevant ministries, councils, and centers for AI development have been established in regional countries.

Central Asian countries are investing in educational programs and initiatives to develop AI talent. Universities and research institutes are beginning to offer courses and conduct research in AI-related fields, laying the foundation for a skilled workforce capable of driving AI innovation. The possibility of creating AI academies to disseminate knowledge about artificial intelligence in the region is being explored.

Plans are underway to introduce the subject “Fundamentals of AI” in schools. Significant investments have been made to create national platforms for AI development, aiming to unite state, business, and educational efforts to foster innovation and AI applications across various fields. For example, over the past five years, Uzbekistan alone has allocated $2 billion to the IT sector, including $700 million in direct investments.

Central Asia, rich in talent and resources, has the potential to develop its own Silicon Valley and achieve substantial economic growth. The region benefits from several key advantages: a youthful population of 70 million, widespread Internet access and device proliferation, a strong desire for knowledge, state support for industry, a high level of education, relatively inexpensive labor, and an emerging venture financing market.

Currently, there are 69,500 ICT specialists in Kazakhstan, over 20,000 in Kyrgyzstan, and about 100,000 in Uzbekistan. According to the report “A Billion at a Distance: IT Export from Central Asia and Strategies for Its Development,” published by the Center for a New Economy “StrategEast” in 2022, Central Asian countries have made significant strides in digital technologies over the past decade. IT product exports are expected to grow rapidly, particularly in Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan.

In the evolving global landscape, youth will increasingly serve as both a primary human resource for development and a crucial driver of social change, economic growth, and technological innovation. Consequently, there is growing attention to youth issues, especially in Central Asian countries. Recently, these nations have been focusing more on youth issues, not only in domestic policies but also at the regional level.

For example, the Fifth Anniversary Consultative Meeting of the Heads of Central Asian States, held on September 14th, 2023, in Dushanbe under Tajikistan’s chairmanship, highlighted youth issues among other key regional topics. During this meeting, state leaders proposed initiatives aimed at advancing youth policy at the regional level.

 

Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev emphasized, 

“Our future is our youth. To consolidate our efforts in developing young people’s competencies, promoting their professional training and employment, we propose establishing, with the participation of relevant international organizations, the Center for Empowerment and Self-Realization of Central Asian Youth. Additionally, we advocate for the creation of regional scientific and educational grants and scholarships for talented youth in the region.”

Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev focused on enhancing university connections. The year 2023 saw the opening of branches of Kazakh universities in Kyrgyzstan, and there are plans to establish joint faculties at Tajikistan’s higher educational institutions. The possibility of opening branches of leading universities from Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in each other’s countries is also under consideration.

The Second Forum of Rectors and the First Forum of Scientists of Central Asian countries, held alongside the meeting in Dushanbe, is expected to expand cooperation in this crucial area. The summit resulted in the adoption of the “Agreement between the Central Asian Countries on Common Directions of Youth Policy.” This agreement aims to foster further youth involvement in the public, cultural, political, social, and economic life of Central Asian states, as well as support youth entrepreneurship and experience exchange in youth employment.

These initiatives have the potential to create new opportunities for young people in Central Asia, contributing to more sustainable and inclusive regional development.

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