Shinta Kamdani is Owner and Chief Executive Officer of the Sintesa Group, Vice Chairwoman of Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (KADIN Indonesia), President of Indonesia Business Council for Sustainable Development (IBCSD), Founder of Angel Investment Network Indonesia (ANGIN), and Chairwoman of Indonesia Business Coalition on Women Empowerment.

The Asia-Pacific region has emerged as the undeniable center of gravity for twenty-first-century global affairs. It is a region where extraordinary economic vitality and profound strategic complexity converge. In 2024, it generated 60 percent of global economic growth and approximately 40 percent of global GDP. Likewise, in the same year, the Asia-Pacific accounted for 38.9 percent of global exports and 36.7 percent of global imports. Yet the foundations of prosperity these figures represent are threatened by rising geopolitical tensions and environmental vulnerabilities.

Shinta Kamdani speaking at the 2025 Indonesia Sustainability Forum | Source: Indonesia Economic Forum/ Editorial use only
 

The region thus faces fundamental questions: will the Asia-Pacific Century be defined by the dominance of a single power? Or will it be defined by its collective capacity to balance competitiveness with collaboration, economic progress with environmental sustainability, and growth with genuine inclusivity? The answers will determine not only the trajectory of regional development but also the character of the global order itself.

My perspective on this question is shaped by three decades at the intersection of business, policy, and sustainability. I have served as Chair of B20 Indonesia during our G20 Presidency, Vice Chair of the Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (KADIN Indonesia), and CEO of Sintesa Group, a strategic investment holding company with a business legacy dating back to 1919. In these leadership roles, I have witnessed firsthand how private sector leadership can drive transformational change when aligned with national development imperatives and global sustainability commitments.

By leading initiatives such as the Carbon Center of Excellence and One Global Women Empowerment, I have come to understand that the business community possesses a unique capacity to translate ambitious policy frameworks into tangible outcomes.

This essay argues that the Asia-Pacific Century will be characterized not by zero-sum competition, but by a new paradigm of “entrepreneurial stewardship”—one in which leadership blends innovation with social and environmental responsibility. Aligning a global agenda that emphasizes sustainability with a national agenda that emphasizes growth is essential for real-sector players to achieve tangible benefits. Practical action is needed, not just the theories found in research papers.

For Indonesia and ASEAN, this challenge represents both an opportunity and an obligation: to transcend false choices and prove that growth and sustainability, national interests and regional cooperation, and domestic constituencies and global governance can be mutually reinforcing.

 

The Shifting Geopolitical Landscape

The last decade has been defined by intensifying strategic competition between the United States and China. This rivalry has fundamentally reshaped the operating environment for Asia-Pacific economies—impacting domains from trade and technology to regional security.

Escalating trade tensions have created immediate and severe disruptions. The U.S. Commerce Department, for example, imposed large tariffs on solar modules with Chinese inputs from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam. Such actions exemplify how smaller economies become collateral damage in great-power competition. Economists project that these tariffs could reduce regional growth by 0.5 percentage points in 2025, with trade flows already straining; for instance, regional export growth has slowed to just 0.4 percent and import growth to 0.1 percent.

Yet the impact extends beyond immediate trade disruption to encompass technology decoupling that threatens to fragment global innovation networks. Export controls on semiconductors and AI hardware announced in late 2024 and early 2025 are creating parallel technology ecosystems, forcing regional economies to navigate competing standards and supply chains. ASEAN countries find themselves caught between the United States’ security umbrella and China’s economic gravitational pull—fearing punitive U.S. tariffs while being flooded with Chinese goods.

While leading Indonesia’s B20 engagement during our G20 Presidency, I observed how this tension manifests in real-time policymaking. Indonesia’s “free and active” foreign policy approach is designed to resist binary choices while pursuing pragmatic cooperation with all parties. During the 2022 G20 Summit in Bali, we successfully navigated deep divisions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to issue a joint leaders’ statement, demonstrating the capacity of middle powers to preserve multilateral frameworks.

 

ASEAN Centrality and the Rise of Networked Minilateralism

Indeed, the Asia-Pacific has witnessed a proliferation of flexible, issue-specific “minilateral” arrangements that exist alongside, and sometimes compete with, traditional multilateral institutions. These arrangements can be organized around specific industries, as with the Digital Economy Partnership Agreement; on the basis of trade, as with the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP); or through issue-based collaborations, such as the Just Energy Transition Partnerships.

Trade agreements illustrate how middle powers are constructing alternative architectures that reduce dependence on a Chinese- or U.S.-led order. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership—the world’s largest free trade agreement, encompassing ASEAN, Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea—was described by the World Economic Forum as “a beacon for the future of multilateralism.” At the same time, the CPTPP offers a complementary framework that is expected to account for more than 40 percent of global GDP by 2050.

These networked arrangements not only allow emerging middle powers and developing economies to exercise greater agency but also demonstrate that business-led agendas are significant in bridging diplomatic gaps. Indonesia’s dual leadership of the G20 in 2022 and ASEAN in 2023 underscored this by raising nearly $1.5 billion for a Pandemic Fund and securing a $20 billion Just Energy Transition Partnership.

I have also witnessed how the private sector can contribute to maintaining economic bridges and driving global agendas despite political tensions. This conviction has shaped my involvement in global forums and initiatives. B20 initiatives, such as the Carbon Center of Excellence, promote participation and integrity in the global voluntary carbon trade. They are now expanding through ASEAN, APEC, and B20 Brazil, alongside the One Global Women Empowerment program.

In these fora, I have seen their potential to deliver inclusive and sustainable growth across the Asia-Pacific region. A notable example is the KADIN Net Zero Hub, which supports the private sector’s net-zero transition with guidance, tools, and partnerships.

Other initiatives continue this work: the Regenerative Forest Hub focuses on advancing sustainable forest management practices that restore biodiversity, while Indonesia Incorporated on Seaweed works to elevate Indonesia’s seaweed industry by integrating it into national economic strategies. Such initiatives deliver practical solutions and foster collaboration between governments, businesses, and civil society—contributing to sustainable economic growth that prioritizes climate resilience.

This emphasis on practical, business-led action enables developing economies to address issues often neglected by major economic players. For instance, the Indonesia-Australia Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (IACEPA) supports education and vocational training, while the Indonesia-European Union CEPA facilitates alignment on sustainable export standards.

Coming from a developing economy, I have first-hand insight into the issues and concerns that unite Asia-Pacific’s developing economies—issues often overlooked amid major power rivalries. Middle powers increasingly rely on networked economic and diplomatic alliances to maintain autonomy and advance shared interests. This creates an institutional architecture that enables hedging, allowing them to avoid rigid alignment with any single power bloc.

Indonesia takes this a step further. Unlike our export-dependent neighbors, Indonesia’s economy relies heavily on domestic consumption, making domestic industrialization a national imperative for enhancing global competitiveness and integration. Our “free and active” foreign policy means formal diplomatic alliances are rarely pursued. Instead, we maintain pragmatic bilateral cooperation that diversifies our international relations and safeguards our national interests without aligning too closely with any single power bloc.

 

Delivering on the Promise of Sustainable Growth

Great-power rivalries and shifting minilateral networks are not the only challenges facing the Asia-Pacific region. The region also confronts stark environmental pressures that demand cross-border cooperation and tough leadership decisions. To achieve net zero by 2050, regional emissions must decline 37 percent by 2030 and 84 percent by 2040—an objective requiring over $1 trillion annually for climate mitigation and adaptation. Nonetheless, this represents an enormous economic reconstruction opportunity.

The transition to a green economy unlocks multiple economic benefits. Southeast Asian nations aim for renewables to make up 23 percent of their energy supply by 2025. With the global bioeconomy potentially reaching $30 trillion by 2050, the region’s industrial dynamism becomes a strategic asset. Processes such as modernizing power grids can create 200,000 jobs and add $25 billion to GDP by 2030, while encouraging the upskilling of a labor force capable of engineering and operating complex systems. A modernized power grid will also accelerate EV ecosystems by boosting production and scaling renewable energy deployment. By developing circular economic models that reduce resource consumption, the green economy could contribute $120 billion in new economic value and 900,000 jobs by 2030 across Southeast Asia.

The development of the blue economy—which focuses on marine ecosystem protection, sustainable fisheries, ocean-based renewable energy, and marine biotechnology—adds another layer of opportunity for the region. The Asian Development Bank’s Healthy Oceans Action Plan, launched in 2019, recognizes that for island nations and coastal communities, ocean health directly determines economic security.

The blue economy offers significant opportunities. Vast renewable marine energy reserves, such as offshore wind farms and tidal technologies, can be tapped for cheaper energy, while emerging techniques like seaweed cultivation contribute to coastal restoration and carbon sequestration. Indonesia is well-positioned to leverage its vast marine territory in developing its blue economy—leading integrated approaches that tackle climate change by combining economic development, community livelihoods, and environmental protection.

Enabling green growth requires strategic policy leadership—one that leverages the combined strengths of private enterprise, bilateral agreements, and international cooperation to ensure that sustainability and growth go hand in hand. Sustainability should not come at the expense of economic potential, just as growth should not compromise environmental or social responsibility.

An integrated approach, which I term “entrepreneurial stewardship,” recognizes that businesses thrive in stable, resilient ecosystems with educated, healthy populations. Climate action and social inclusion thus become imperatives for strategic competitiveness, not merely charitable obligations. A successful green transition aligns business incentives with sustainability imperatives. This is exemplified by Sintesa Group, a sustainable excellence company that has pursued impact-driven, ESG-aligned investments to support the private sector’s transition toward a low-carbon economy. Sintesa Group works in tandem with initiatives like KADIN’s Net Zero Hub to facilitate broader regional adoption of low-carbon practices.

Indonesia’s policy leadership in carbon markets shows how business can drive systemic change. The Indonesia Carbon Exchange (IDXCarbon), launched in 2023, creates price-discovery mechanisms that direct capital toward emissions reduction. This is coordinated through the ASEAN Alliance on Carbon Market, which emerged from our Carbon Center of Excellence initiative and offers the potential for cross-border carbon trading.

Additionally, the Indonesia Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) represents an unprecedented public-private collaboration. The partnership commits $20 billion to achieve a clean energy target of 44 percent of total power production by 2030. It will deploy 100 GW of new energy capacity over 15 years, with renewables accounting for 75 percent of that new capacity. Moreover, the JETP advances the country’s net-zero target from 2060 to 2050.

Multilateral institutions will play a crucial role by providing necessary capital flows to support regional green finance mechanisms. The World Bank’s $2.5 billion renewable integration program for East Asia and the Pacific, for instance, demonstrates the catalytic role of multilateral development banks in de-risking investments. In parallel, green bonds and sustainability-linked loans have grown exponentially, while blended finance structures combine concessional public funds with commercial capital to make viable projects that would otherwise lack adequate returns.

 

Forging a Path to Inclusive Growth

Political and business leadership are also responsible for inclusive growth, which provides a strategic competitive advantage. Advancing women’s equality, for instance, represents an enormous untapped economic opportunity. A 2015 McKinsey study projected that closing gender gaps could add $4.5 trillion to the collective Asia-Pacific GDP by 2025—a 12 percent increase over the business-as-usual scenario.

Globally, the same study found that eliminating the participation gap could generate $28 trillion in annual GDP, with $17 trillion from the Asia-Pacific region alone—increasing GDP per capita by 20 percent across all regions. Yet current gaps remain stark. In South Asia, women contribute only 17 percent of GDP. The figure is 34 percent in Southeast Asia and the Pacific. These numbers have barely changed over the last decade despite progress in educational attainment. In contrast, China leads the region with women contributing 41 percent to GDP, demonstrating what is possible.

Overcoming these persistent barriers requires coordinated action that addresses structural and social inequalities. Challenges such as limited access to finance, workplace discrimination, unequal care responsibilities, and digital exclusion continue to constrain women’s participation and opportunity. Regional cooperation should prioritize inclusive digital transformation, education aligned with future economic needs, and frameworks that enable labor mobility and entrepreneurship. Expanding women’s business networks will be critical to ensuring that growth across the region is both equitable and sustainable.

My work in Indonesia offers an emerging regional model through initiatives like One Global Women Empowerment and my former role as chairwoman of the UN ESCAP Sustainable Business Network. Through the Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (KADIN) and the Indonesian Employers Association (APINDO), we have implemented women’s entrepreneurship programs, mentorship networks, and advocacy for policy reforms on gender equality. These achievements are the result of a career defined by breaking barriers in male-dominated industries and a commitment to opening pathways for the next generation.

Given the Asia-Pacific’s demographic profile, youth engagement represents an equally critical priority. The region has a demographic dividend, with over half of its population aged under 30 as of 2018. This creates enormous growth potential, but only if youth unemployment is addressed through education systems aligned with future economic demands, robust entrepreneurship ecosystems, and digital skills training. Indonesia has invested substantially in vocational training through its bilateral CEPAs, recognizing that human capital development determines our competitiveness in increasingly knowledge-intensive industries.

Therefore, framing inclusion as essential for strategic competitiveness, rather than merely social policy, is critical. Diverse teams demonstrate superior innovation and problem-solving skills. Companies with strong gender diversity show better financial performance. Economies that fully utilize their human capital grow faster and more sustainably.

Through my work with Sintesa Group, I have witnessed firsthand how diversity enhances organizational performance. By promoting inclusive leadership and equitable opportunities, the company has seen improved decision-making, innovation, and collaboration. This demonstrates that inclusive practices are not only ethically right but also strategically advantageous for business growth and competitiveness.

The Asia-Pacific region faces large-scale environmental challenges; however, these challenges present opportunities to build more sustainable and inclusive economic models. By leveraging its growth trajectory to incorporate sustainability and social inclusion, the Asia-Pacific region can demonstrate that development and responsibility are not mutually exclusive but mutually reinforcing. This represents the distinctive contribution the region can make to global development paradigms that serve both people and the planet.

 

The Asia-Pacific Crossroad

The Asia-Pacific stands at a crossroads. The region that has defied expectations before now faces its greatest test: to prove that its remarkable economic achievements can be matched with environmental responsibility and social inclusion—all while navigating intensifying great-power rivalries, climate-induced threats to its populations and agricultural systems, and persistent social exclusion that stifles its potential.

As I have argued, this requires a new paradigm of “entrepreneurial stewardship.” The Asia-Pacific Century must be defined not by which country dominates, but by its collective capacity to balance competitiveness with collaboration, growth with sustainability, national interests with regional cooperation, and innovation with inclusion. This means strengthening multilateral institutions while embracing flexible minilateralism and leveraging economic dynamism for the green transition. Furthermore, the region must ensure growth benefits all segments of society, build resilience through a diverse array of partnerships, and maintain an unwavering commitment to the rules-based order, even as specific rules evolve.

Indonesia’s experience offers instructive lessons. The country’s leadership of the G20 in 2022 and ASEAN in 2023 demonstrated the capacity of middle powers to bridge developed and developing economies, advance ambitious agendas despite geopolitical tensions, and mobilize private-sector resources. The $20 billion Just Energy Transition Partnership, the Pandemic Fund, and initiatives like the Carbon Center of Excellence and One Global Women Empowerment all represent tangible achievements born from patient diplomatic engagement and business–government collaboration. This approach—resisting pressure to choose sides in great-power competition and instead investing in institutional capacity, regional cooperation, and the alignment of economic policy with sustainability—is what will create an environment for inclusive growth.

Action is also required from business leaders. We must drive sustainability transitions through innovation and investment, champion inclusive employment, and engage constructively in policy dialogue. We must also build cross-border partnerships that reinforce economic interdependence.

Likewise, civil society has a critical role. It must hold leaders accountable to their climate and inclusion commitments, participate actively in regional institution-building, bridge divides across borders, and amplify the voices of marginalized communities.

My optimism for the region’s future is grounded in experience—in witnessing firsthand the transformative potential of business leadership when it is aligned with policy vision and community needs. Through Sintesa Group’s evolution, KADIN’s Net Zero Hub support for SME transitions, and cross-border initiatives scaling from national to global platforms, I have seen what becomes possible when we move beyond rhetoric to implementation. Our responsibility as business leaders, policymakers, and citizens of this dynamic region is to create a more integrated, sustainable, and inclusive world for future generations. It is up to us to decide what kind of century Asia will create for itself—and for the world.

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