CIRSD Recommends

World oil supply and demand

According to the Energy Information Administration’s Monthly Energy Review database, world field production of crude oil in September was up 1.5 million barrels a day over the previous year. More than all of that came from a 440,000 b/d increase in t

Let China win. It’s good for America.

When Chinese officials announced in 2013 that they would open an Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank to primarily fund big construction projects across the Pacific, they launched a slow-motion freak-out in Washington. As they went around the world i

Rethinking Sanctions

Today, the United Nations Security Council has more sanctions regimes in place than at any time in its history. During the 1990s, the maximum was eight; in the 2000s, the peak rose to 12; now it stands at 16. And these totals do not include sanctions

The oil-price slump: crisis symptom or fuel for growth?

The oil price dropped to a new 11 year low at the beginning of the year. Oil price movements are the result of three factors: changes in oil supply; changes in the importance of oil in the economy and changes in the global economic climate.

Oman, stuck between Saudi Arabia and Iran

The Sultanate of Oman has always been the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member on best terms with Iran. Muscat’s alliance with Tehran must be understood within the context of Oman’s independent approach to foreign affairs under Sultan Qaboos’ leader

Baku's Difficult Balancing Act

It has been a ill-omened start of the year for Azerbaijan's foreign policy. For the last several years, Baku was attempting to embrace its position as a so-called "keystone state" in one of the world's most strategic pieces of real estate.

The dollar’s international role: An “exorbitant privilege”?

This post is the third of three based on my Mundell-Fleming lecture, which discussed the international effects of Fed policy. In the two previous posts (see here and here), I addressed a pair of criticisms of recent U.S. monetary policy: (1) that the

How New Year's Eve in Cologne Has Changed Germany

A lot happened on New Year's Eve in Cologne, much of it contradictory, much of it real, much of it imagined. Some was happenstance, some was exaggerated and much of it was horrifying. In its entirety, the events of Cologne on New Year's Eve and in th

Asking the Right Questions about ISIS: Between Politics and Ideology

The discussion around whether or not the Islamic State (ISIS or ISIL) is Islamic began as soon as the group entered onto the world stage. It throws up a number of queries for policy makers in the United States, Europe, and the Arab world, and the pol

The Geopolitics of the Paris Talks

World headlines blare the news that negotiators in Paris have reached a global climate change agreement. Yet underneath the soaring rhetoric were hard politics that can tell a lot about the longevity of the deal.

Oil Prices and Global Growth

One of the biggest economic surprises of 2015 is that the stunning drop in global oil prices did not deliver a bigger boost to global growth. Despite the collapse in prices, from over $115 per barrel in June 2014 to $45 at the end of November 2015, m

As Ebola Lingers in Liberia, What Have We Learned?

The deadly West African Ebola epidemic has largely faded from headlines, replaced by mounting concern over conflict in the Middle East, terrorism, and refugees streaming into Europe. But while Guinea and Sierra Leone were declared free of the disease

Two Cheers for the Paris Agreement on Climate Change

The Paris climate summit (also known as COP 21) has adopted a new “Paris Agreement”. The agreement has the potential to mark a laudable and historic shift in how the world negotiates cooperation on climate change. It does not justify the over-the-top

France’s far-right National Front loses a round, but they will be back

There was widespread relief among mainstream voters in France this evening, after Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Front (FN) failed to score a single victory at elections to the country’s 13 regions. Her party shook France a week ago by topping vo

China's efforts to curb coal contributes to slowdown in global emissions, says new research

Global carbon dioxide emissions from burning coal, oil and gas as well as from industrial activities grew by just 0.6% in 2014, according to researchers from the Global Carbon Project of the organisation Future Earth.The researchers say emissions hav

Unlocking Climate Finance

Record-strength hurricanes, submerged coastal cities, scorched dust bowls – these are the sort of apocalyptic images that are often used to illustrate the devastating consequences of climate change. But for millions of farmers in Latin America and th

What Paris Talks Have Accomplished So Far

The two-week United Nations conference on climate change is halfway over, and no matter what else happens, it has already been a clear-cut success in two critical areas.

What can we expect from Russia in Syria?

Ever since it started at the end of September, Russia’s military engagement in Syria has given rise to many questions, contradictory interpretations, different hopes and fears. While some have seen it as anti-Western policy, others have hoped that it

Overcoming Europe’s Twin Growth Challenges

As economic recovery finally begins to take hold in Europe, the imperative for policymakers is to ensure that growth can be sustained far into the future. Fiscal and monetary stimulus may have been appropriate at the peak of the crisis, but they will

The Big China Story Nobody’s Really Covering

The Chinese Discovery of the World is one of major stories of our age: For the first time in China’s 2,500 years of history, millions of its citizens are venturing beyond their home towns and cities and out beyond the boundaries of the Middle Kingdom

Why defeating the Islamic State won't bring stability to Iraq

Iraq’s most urgent challenge is to eliminate the Islamic State (IS), but that battle will be just a prelude to myriad conflicts in liberated areas such as Sinjar and Tuz Khormato if the rival parties can't reach a consensus on their future status.

The First Steps In Global Goal Partnership And Implementation

Over the coming year, one of the multilateral system's most important tasks will be to implement first steps toward achieving the sustainable development goals (SDGs, or

COP21 Paris climate talks: World powers are aligned and change is possible

In 1992, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change rightly called for a stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations at a level that would prevent dangerous climate change. The UN Climate talks that have just begun in Paris can and should under

Preserving the Ottoman Mosaic

The roots of the Middle East’s many conflicts lie in the unraveling of the Ottoman Empire at the beginning of the twentieth century and the failure since then to forge a stable regional order. As the international community works toward securing a du

Highlights